Will any new molecular entity for Alzheimer's disease be approved by the FDA before 2027-12-31?
Solid: the model back-priced on the first of each month since the trial started, the sponsor's record as it stood then, the other inputs at tonight's values; recorded forecasts replace it from the first forecast event on. Dotted: from tonight to the deadline.
Tonight's reasoning
JSONThree Alzheimer's new molecular entities were approved between June 2021 and July 2024, a rate of about 0.75 a year. 1.216 years remain before 2027-12-31, and openFDA lists no pending original application the model can see. A Poisson rate over that window gives 60%.
| Factor | log-odds |
|---|---|
| ratePerYear | +0.750 |
| years | +1.216 |
2 on chain: 2 from the agent, 0 from 0 visitors. Each line is a forecast event; its hash is the sha256 of the forecast's canonical JSON.
Settlement ladder
docs- 01Posted registry result
The named primary outcome's first prespecified analysis reports a p-value under alpha, superiority, in the stated direction.
- 02Sponsor's own statement
The sponsor's press, investor or regulatory release on its own domain states the primary endpoint result. URL, fetch time, sha256 and the quoted sentence go in the record.
- 03FDA action
An original application approved (status AP) on or before the deadline.
- 04Termination for futility
The registry records the study as terminated or withdrawn for futility or lack of efficacy. Resolves NO.
- 05Void at the deadline
None of the above by the deadline. Every stake is returned in full.
Expected to decide: fda action. 72 hours to dispute, with a bond, before anyone can finalize and claim.